approaches for deriving and estimating PIT and TTC PDs. One such framework involves distinguishing PIT and TTC PDs by means of systematic predictable fluctuations in credit conditions, i.e. by means of a "credit cycle". This framework, involving the selective use of either PIT or TTC PDs for different purposes, has been successfully implemented in large UK banks with BASEL II AIRB status.

As a first step this framework makes use of Merton approach in which leverage and volatility (or their proxies)