the 2024 report lowered that further to 477 million, a reduction of 69 million. Jose Rimon of Johns Hopkins University suggested, "We have been underestimating what is happening in terms of fertility change in Africa. Africa will probably undergo the same kind of rapid changes as east Asia did."The 2024 edition brought the peak forward to 2084, with the population topping at 10.3 billion.

A table based on UN World Population Prospects reports, using the medium fertility scenario:

Drivers of population change

The population

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