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<p>theory, and accordingly the phrase was used in <a href="page.php?w=Thomas_Bayes">Thomas Bayes</a>' famous posthumous paper <a href="page.php?w=An_Essay_Towards_Solving_a_Problem_in_the_Doctrine_of_Chances">An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances</a>, wherein a version of <a href="page.php?w=Bayes%27_theorem">Bayes' theorem</a> was first introduced.</p>

<p><big>Editions</big></p>
<p>The full title of the first edition was The Doctrine of Chances: or, A Method of Calculating the Probability of Events in Play. It was published in 1718,</p><p>
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