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of different outcomes. This is proving to be very difficult due to a number of problems. These include:

#The ensemble has to be wide-ranging to ensure it covers the whole range where the climate models may be good.
#Measuring what is a good model is difficult. This may need to consider not only errors in the observation but also in the model.
#Any prior assumptions about distribution can influence the probability distribution function produced.

Types of ensembles

There are at least five different types of climate

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