months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production".

Upper turning points of business cycle, commodity prices and freight rates

There is often a close timing relationship between the upper turning points of the business cycle, commodity prices, and freight rates, which is shown to be particularly tight in the grand peak years of 1873, 1889, 1900 and 1912. Hamilton expressed that in the post war era, a majority of recessions are connected to an increase in oil price.

Commodity price

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